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Introduction

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Jackpot Hold'em® is a poker-based casino game in which the player may make one raise at any time during the course of the hand. The earlier the raise is made the higher it may be. The game is very similar to Ultimate Texas Hold' Em. Unlike in that game, in Jackpot Hold 'Em the player may see one of the flop cards before the big raise decision. That comes at a cost of being able to raise 3x only on the big raise, as opposed to 4x.

The game is distributed by AGS.

Rules

These rules assume the player has a basic understanding of Texas Hold 'Em rules.

The game is played with a single ordinary 52-card deck.
The player must make an equal bet on both the Ante and X-TRA Bonus, and can also make an optional Player Bonus bet.
Two cards are dealt face down to the player, which he may look at.
In addition, the first card of a three-card flop is dealt face up.
The player can check or make a Play bet equal to three times the Ante.
The dealer turns over the next two flop cards.
If the player previously checked, then he may make a Play bet equal to two times his Ante. If the player already made a Play bet, then he may not bet further.
Two final community cards are turned over.
If the player previously checked twice, then he must either make a Play bet equal to exactly his Ante, or fold, losing both his Ante and X-TRA Bonus bets. If the player already raised he may not bet further.
The player and dealer will both make the best possible hand using any combination of their own two cards and the five community cards.*
The dealer will need at least a pair to open.
The following table shows how the X-TRA Bonus, Ante, and Play bets are scored, according to who wins, and whether the dealer opens.
Scoring Rules
Winner Dealer Opens X-TRA Bonus Ante Play
Player Yes Win Win Win
Player No Win Push Win
Dealer Yes Lose Lose Lose
Dealer No Lose Push Lose
Tie Yes or No Push Push Push
Winning Ante and Play bets pay 1 to 1. Winning X-TRA Bonus bets pay according to the following pay table.
X-TRA Bonus Pay Table
Player Hand Pays
Royal flush 500 to 1
Straight flush 50 to 1
Four of a kind 10 to 1
Full house 4 to 1
Flush 2 to 1
Straight 1 to 1
All other Push
The Player Bonus bet will pay according to the poker value of the player's hand regardless of the value of the dealer's hand, according to one of the Trips bet pay tables below.

Strategy

Following is a strategy for the first decision point, created by Steve Howe, and kindly provided to me by AGS. I'm afraid I don't know what exactly he means by 'reach for straight.' According to Steve, the cost of errors using this strategy is an increase in house edge of 0.1875%.

Make the 3X raise with any of the following, otherwise check:

three-of-a-kind
3-suited Q+ hole cards
any hole cards paired with flop
A w/ 5 or better hole cards
K w/ 8 or better hole cards
JT+ or QT+ hole cards when reach for straight w/ flop
pocket 5's or better
Ace-high hole cards when reach for straight w/ flop

As for the medium and small raises, I think the player would be fairly safe using the medium and small raise strategies in Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em. Exact strategy would not be same, because the X-Tra bonus pay table is different than that of the Blind pay table, but differences only matter for player hands of a flush or higher.

Base Game Analysis

The following table shows every possible outcome of the game, what it pays, number of combinations out of all possible, probability, and contribution to the return. The lower right cell shows a house edge, defined as the ratio of the expected player loss to the Ante bet, of 2.38%. By the end of the hand, the average combined wager between the Ante, X-Tra Bonus, and raise will be 3.66 units. The element of risk, defined as the ratio of expected player loss to average bet, is 0.65%.

Base Game Return Table

Event	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
Player folds	-2	16,851,237,072,120	0.201953	-0.403906
Small raise player loses, dealer doesn't qualify	-2	220,193,019,312	0.002639	-0.005278
Small raise player loses, dealer qualifies	-3	10,603,001,821,128	0.127071	-0.381214
Small raise push	0	1,455,502,686,804	0.017443	0.000000
Small raise player wins with royal flush, dealer doesn't qualify	501	25,917,984	0.000000	0.000156
Small raise player wins with straight flush, dealer doesn't qualify	51	843,819,588	0.000010	0.000516
Small raise player wins with four of a kind, dealer doesn't qualify	11	-	0.000000	0.000000
Small raise player wins with full house, dealer doesn't qualify	5	-	0.000000	0.000000
Small raise player wins with flush, dealer doesn't qualify	3	133,128,700,164	0.001595	0.004786
Small raise player wins with straight, dealer doesn't qualify	2	450,599,419,020	0.005400	0.010800
Small raise player wins with three of a kind or less, dealer doesn't qualify	1	2,789,253,813,264	0.033428	0.033428
Small raise player wins with royal flush, dealer qualifies	502	152,792,856	0.000002	0.000919
Small raise player wins with straight flush, dealer qualifies	52	6,100,907,352	0.000073	0.003802
Small raise player wins with four of a kind, dealer qualifies	12	3,169,503,240	0.000038	0.000456
Small raise player wins with full house, dealer qualifies	6	149,967,716,064	0.001797	0.010784
Small raise player wins with flush, dealer qualifies	4	624,131,265,732	0.007480	0.029919
Small raise player wins with straight, dealer qualifies	3	1,307,110,561,812	0.015665	0.046995
Small raise player wins with three of a kind or less, dealer qualifies	2	5,494,992,560,280	0.065854	0.131709
Medium raise player loses, dealer doesn't qualify	-3	33,030,447,840	0.000396	-0.001188
Medium raise player loses, dealer qualifies	-4	4,665,080,847,468	0.055908	-0.223634
Medium raise push	0	489,150,998,040	0.005862	0.000000
Medium raise player wins with royal flush, dealer doesn't qualify	502	39,563,496	0.000000	0.000238
Medium raise player wins with straight flush, dealer doesn't qualify	52	901,395,396

Odds Of Casino Jackpot